A few days ago, Alaska launched their first miles sale for 2020, offering up to a 40% bonus on miles purchases.
I’ve been through enough sales to know that a 40% bonus= 2.11 US cents per mile, which is why something seemed off about the figures this time round. Instead of the usual US$1,773.75 for 84,000 miles (2.11 US cents per mile), I was now seeing US$1,809.23 (2.15 US cents per mile).
I checked with a few other people, and all their accounts were still seeing the old pricing. I surmised it was just a website bug, and that the old pricing would revert shortly.
Turns out that was design rather than accident. As per OMAAT and a few other sources, Alaska has indeed increased the price of purchasing miles by 2%. It’s a marginal increase to be sure, but it’s still an increase.
How does this change your calculations?
In all honesty, if you were already determined to buy miles, this is more of an annoyance than a deal breaker.
Suppose you wanted to buy 25,000 miles for a one-way Singapore to Tokyo award on Japan Airlines Business Class. The net increase in cost for you (assuming a 40% bonus) is US$10.
| At 2.11 US cents | At 2.15 US cents | |
| Cost of 25,000 miles | US$527.50 | US$537.50 |
Similarly, if you were thinking of buying 70,000 miles for a one-way Singapore to San Francisco award on Cathay Pacific First Class, the net increase in cost is US$28.
| At 2.11 US cents | At 2.15 US cents | |
| Cost of 70,000 miles | US$1,477 | US$1,505 |
It remains to be seen whether Alaska will compensate for the price increase by adding larger bonuses (the argument being that the net price per mile can be kept the same, but people are incentivized to buy more miles now). However, given that the value of the Mileage Plan has declined in the past few years (what with the devaluation of Emirates awards and the loss of the JAL trick), they’d be wise not to push customers too far.
| What was the JAL one-way trick? |
| The JAL one-way trick was a way of redeeming a pseudo round-trip between Singapore and Japan for the price of a one-way.
It took advantage of the fact that Mileage Plan allowed a stopover on a one-way award of up to a year. This meant you could book SIN-NRT-KUL, spend a week in Tokyo and pay just 25,000 miles in Business Class, a spectacular deal if you bought miles when they went on sale. At a price of 1.97 US cents/mile (achievable during a 50% bonus miles sale), your journey would cost you the equivalent of S$670 or so, plus some taxes.
You’d of course need to find your way back from KUL-SIN, but this was a simple as buying a sub-S$100 budget flight. Alternatively, you could start in KUL and fly KUL-NRT-SIN.ย You could also finish your itinerary in BKK or CGK if you so pleased, or do an open jaw at the turnaround point to fly home from KIX.ย |
Conclusion
Alaska’s decision to raise the price of miles by 2% doesn’t dramatically change the equation or use cases for Mileage Plan miles. However, I’d keep a closer eye on them in the future, given there was no official announcement about this change.
In any case, a 40% bonus is not the largest we see from Alaska Mileage Plan, and if you have no immediate need for miles you’re better off waiting for a 50% bonus to come around.
How do other people still see the old price? Will it change when they pay for it?
Ever since SQ came aboard, JL awards ex Sin to JPN are much harder to come by. Search results are populated by SQ with their ridiculous pricing whereas in the past one can find JL flights daily. Now even when there are JL flights, they are either economy or the worst red eye flight.
Unchecking SQ options on the left side of the screen help. It’ll show all available JL options as opposed to squeezing some through.
this is a great tip, thanks.
a cheaper way of buying Alaska miles just opens. Marriott is selling its points for 50% bonus, resulting in 0.83 cents(US) per points. 60K Marriott points for 25 Alaska Miles, so less than 2 cents(US) per miles
great tip, thanks for letting me know