Has the plan for “SHN-free travel” from September been abandoned?

In July this year, Finance Minister Lawrence Wong announced in parliament that Singapore would implement SHN-free travel for vaccinated individuals in early September, contingent on 80% of the population getting fully vaccinated. 

“We will also begin to reopen our borders, especially for vaccinated persons to travel. We will start by establishing travel corridors with countries or regions that have managed COVID-19 well, and where the infection is similarly under control. So fully vaccinated persons will then be able to travel to these countries or regions without needing to serve the full 14-day SHN in a hotel when they return. 

Depending on the risk level of the country they visit, we will either replace the SHN with a vigorous testing regime, or shorten the SHN to 7-days at home. This will allow vaccinated persons to travel more freely.”

In line with this, MOH subsequently announced that from 21 August, fully-vaccinated travellers from Australia, Austria, Canada, Germany, Italy, Norway, South Korea and Switzerland would be allowed to serve their 14-day SHN at home, instead of in a dedicated facility. This led me to speculate that these countries would be first in line for a 7-day or waived SHN from September onwards. 

So far so good. But just yesterday, Trade and Industry Minister Gan Kim Yong suggested in an interview with Bloomberg that the goal was now a pilot program for business and leisure travel, on a controlled itinerary. 

*record scratch sound*

I don’t know what to make of this, quite frankly. To put it mildly, it’s radically different from what most people had in mind for September. SHN-free travel was dangled as a carrot to get vaccinated, and while I’m sure that will happen eventually, there’s a sense of frustration that it seems to have become later rather than sooner.

Singapore’s updated reopening plans

Bloomberg reports that Singapore is in talks with Germany, Australia, Canada and South Korea to establish pilot programmes for vaccinated business and leisure travellers. Visitors will have to stick to “carefully controlled itineraries”, as explained below by Gan Kim Yong:

“In the pilot, we are likely to focus more on business travel, but beyond business travel, we are also looking at the possibility of leisure travel, particularly to those safer countries, those with a lower infection rate,” he said. “We will need to pilot-run some of this with an organised itinerary, probably with organised tour groups, to be able to find ways to bubble-wrap them for the journey and with specific designated places that they can visit.”

Here’s the thing: with greatest respect to the bird park, I don’t think Singapore is attractive enough a destination for tourists to visit on a controlled itinerary. I mean, heck, you could offer me Rome and I wouldn’t be keen if it meant just the Colosseum, hotel, and inside of a tour bus. 

Moreover, I don’t think business travellers will bite either. After all, the much-heralded Connect@Changi facility has gone completely quiet following its unceremonious suspension in late May. It saw a mere 120 bookings in its brief existence, and I’d wager it hasn’t quite been the success its creators originally envisioned.

And maybe that shouldn’t come as much of a shock. Business travel is more than just meetings (which can be done on Zoom anyway); it’s about networking, socialising and building relationships- something that “bubble wrapped” itineraries and acrylic screens don’t exactly foster. Concepts like Connect@Changi entail all the expenses of business travel (flights, accommodation, time) with few of the benefits, and I’d be very surprised if it were ever expanded to its planned full capacity of 1,300 business travellers. 

So it’s puzzling why small-scale controlled itineraries are now being mooted as the way forward. Even if the idea is to take baby steps (and there’s nothing wrong with that), wouldn’t it make more sense to start by opening to just one or two countries, without movement restrictions? An electronic travel authorisation scheme could help control the number of arrivals, and while it’s not quite frictionless, it’s still better than controlled itineraries. 

What about SHN free travel for September?

One could argue that these pilot programs still meet the definition of “SHN-free travel in September”, but that would be disingenuous.

The fact is: SHN-free travel was never broached in such terms back in July, and certainly not with so many caveats. There was no talk of pilot programs or controlled itineraries; simply read, Lawrence Wong’s comments gave the impression that vaccinated Singaporeans could travel to selected countries and return with no SHN, or a shortened one at most. 

“Depending on the risk level of the country they visit, we will either replace the SHN with a vigorous testing regime, or shorten the SHN to 7-days at home. This will allow vaccinated persons to travel more freely.”

Don’t get me wrong. Even if travel weren’t a carrot, I’d still get vaccinated anyway. I got my first jab on 11 June, the day after it opened to my group and well before any differentiated measures were announced. But for those who were on the fence, the current situation feels like a case of shifted goalposts, or bait and switch. 

While the decision to return to P2HA in July was unpopular, I understood the argument that we needed to buy a little more time to get our vaccination figures up from 50%. Singapore had just kicked off its accelerated vaccination programme, and we’d see the benefits shortly. 

Such a conservative approach is harder to justify now. If anything, Singapore is safer than it was back in July, with 77% of the population having completed the full vaccine regimen and climbing. ICU cases are in single digits, less than three dozen require oxygen supplementation, and vaccination rates among the most vulnerable groups are well above 80%. If this isn’t enough, what will be?

Conclusion

It’s probably wishful thinking that Singapore will adopt a controlled itinerary system for tourists and business visitors, while allowing its own residents to travel overseas and return without SHN. That wouldn’t make sense anyway, since the risk profile would be similar for, say, a German resident coming to Singapore, and a Singapore resident returning from visiting Germany.

While nothing’s set in stone, the latest developments have made me much less optimistic about SHN-free travel actually materialising in September. It’s a confusing turn of events, to say the least. We know vaccines work, so why are we acting like they don’t? 

SHN-free travel in September- what’s your take?