Reflections on getting fully vaccinated

On Friday I received my second dose of the Moderna vaccine, which means that by 23 July, I’ll be fully vaxxed and waxed (or 50% successful, in any case). 

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Call it a side effect if you want, but I was positively giddy after getting the shot- with excitement. It’s not just the knowledge that you’ll soon be protected against COVID-19 and much less likely to infect a loved one; it’s also the sense that after all this time, there’s finally some light at the end of the tunnel. 

We can have endless debates about how the Singapore government has handled the COVID-19 pandemic, and whether they were too slow with certain measures or too hasty with others. When it’s all said and done however, I can’t think of anywhere else I’d rather be in a time like this. 

The fact that Singapore had the foresight to bet on the right vaccines and the financial muscle to get to the top of the queue is something to be thankful for, as is not having to bribe a doctor, worry about fake vaccination centres, or fly across the globe to get a jab. Many of the horrors we saw overseas like mass graves, overflowing ICUs, or equipment shortages forcing doctors to decide which patients lived or died never materialized here, and although 36 deaths is 36 too many, it could have been a lot worse. 

And sure, I was a bit disappointed when the dates for my age group kept getting pushed back, but it seems churlish to complain about a short delay, especially when some developed nations are well behind us.

Seriously, the ability to choose from two proven, effective (and free!) vaccines is a privilege that few people around the world have. There are many who would kill to be in our position. Get your shot, get protected, get on with life.

So with vaccination done, the big question now is: what next?

What changes now?

Travel

Even for fully vaccinated Singaporeans, travel is unlikely to be a realistic proposition until September at the earliest. While some countries will accept vaccinated tourists without quarantine, all travellers entering Singapore are still required to do a 14-day SHN, regardless of vaccination status. That effectively adds S$2,000 and two weeks to your trip, a deal-breaker for most. 

But the government has already dropped plenty of hints that the SHN requirement will soon be waived for vaccinated travellers, as part of their plans to reopen borders. This will no doubt be tied to hitting a certain critical mass of vaccinations, and the goal is to get 66% of the population protected by National Day. Do that, and I have a sneaking suspicion PM Lee will have a major announcement to make at the rally on 22 August. 

In terms of where vaccinated Singaporeans can go, the idea is to open up to places that have  met certain thresholds in terms of vaccination rates and new cases. In an interview with the Straits Times, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung suggested the following heuristic:

“Once a place’s (Covid-19) infection rate is going down, vaccinations are going up and you go below, say, two or three infections per 100,000, we should start monitoring those countries seriously.”

“Some parts of the EU” and the USA were mentioned as specific examples, and here’s some figures to consider (I’ve only taken countries with direct flights to Singapore, since transits could be messy business in the current climate):

As you can see, only a handful of European nations would fall into the <3 cases per 100,000 category, and with the more contagious Delta variant now taking root on the continent, the numbers could get worse before they get better. 

What about travel within ASEAN and the broader Asia Pacific region? The vaccination situation is less positive, with many countries still in the single digits and progressing at a snail’s pace. That said, cases are fairly modest (with the exception of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand), and leisure travel might yet be on the cards assuming vaccinated Singaporeans are welcome. 

That’s not a given though. The Hong Kong government was recently urged by lawmakers to scrap the planned ATB with Singapore, given our abandonment of a “COVID-zero” strategy. Given the importance of cross-border travel between Hong Kong and China, and the latter’s emphasis on eliminating rather than containing COVID, the prospect of a leisure travel bubble just got dimmer.

Similarly, Singapore Airlines announced last month that it’s no longer working towards a timeline for the Singapore-Australia travel bubble, and that’s probably the last we’ve heard of it till the end of 2021.

But something might yet happen with Japan, now that the country is administering more than one million doses per day and hoping to vaccinate everyone who wants a shot by November. Taiwan has been floating around as a possibility, as has South Korea. 

So if you asked me, here’s what I’m betting on for Q4:

• USA
• Germany
• France
• Switzerland
• Japan
• South Korea
• Taiwan
• Hong Kong (I still think they’ll try to work out something, but I’m less confident than I was a month ago)

Do keep in mind there are numerous issues still to be worked out before quarantine-free travel becomes a reality: 

• What happens to those who are aged under 12 or unable to be vaccinated for legitimate medical reasons?
• How will countries recognise each other’s vaccination regimes? What happens to those who were vaccinated overseas and only have paper records?
• How will vaccines not approved under Singapore’s national vaccination program but administered overseas (e.g. Astra-Zeneca, Johnson&Johnson) be recognised? 
• Will transiting in a country with a higher COVID-19 risk require you to serve quarantine on return to Singapore?

Smarter minds than mine are no doubt working on this already, but even if travel does resume, don’t expect Changi Terminals 2 and 4 to reopen anytime soon. Terminals 1 and 3 are already providing more than sufficient capacity for the ~170,000 passengers traveling in and out of Singapore each month. 

Non-travel

Travel aside, the more immediate changes will come towards the end of July when differentiated measures for vaccinated individuals kick in. Some carrots include:

• Being able to meet or dine in groups of up to eight people
• Raising the cap for large activities like concerts or weddings to 500 people
• Allowing more workers to return to office (well, “carrot” is all a matter of perspective)

Some companies are also offering incentives for vaccinated individuals. Here’s a website compiling the various perks. 

Conclusion

One unfortunate trend I’ve noticed recently is a growing number of keyboard warriors who get a kick out of doom-mongering or putting down anyone who dares to make travel plans. You might argue they’re just being conservative, but some of it feels mean-spirited, in a “if I can’t enjoy myself, you can’t either” way.

There’s every reason for Singaporeans to feel optimistic about quarantine-free travel in Q4 2021. Sure, things can always go south quickly, but there’s nothing wrong with making (flexible) plans and having something to look forward to. 

I do look forward to the day when we can ditch the masks, drink alcohol after 10.30 p.m, listen to live music or enjoy the many other small things (like entering/exiting a mall from any door) the pandemic has taken away. It won’t all happen at once, but vaccination means we’re one step closer. 

In the meantime, do encourage your unvaccinated friends and family (especially the elderly) to get their jabs. Look, if Bill Gates really wanted to control your mind, he could already do it via the 5G towers.