SHN-free travel from September: Where can vaccinated Singaporeans hope to go?

On 24 March 2020, Singapore took the unprecedented step of closing its borders to tourists and short-term visitors in an attempt to control the spread of COVID-19. With very limited exceptions, those borders have remained shut ever since, and the average Singaporean probably hasn’t travelled in more than 18 months. 

But finally, there’s something to look forward to. Singapore announced yesterday that vaccinated individuals may be able to travel without a 14-day SHN, as soon as early September 2021. The current 14-day hotel-based SHN will be replaced by either a 7-day home-based SHN, or simply a test on arrival, depending on the country’s risk profile. 

Based on what the authorities are saying, this sounds like a three-tier “traffic light” system, similar to that used in the UK. Countries would be divided into low, medium and high risk, with concessions granted to vaccinated travelers arriving from the low and medium risk categories. 

This then begs the question: where can we go?

When shortlisting realistic travel prospects for 2021, I think of a funnel with three layers:

Which countries take Singaporeans?

If you’re fully vaccinated with a Singapore passport, there’s actually nothing stopping you from entering almost 130 countries or territories: 

The most you’ll need to present is a negative COVID-19 test, and in the case of 55 of the aforementioned countries and territories, that’s not even required. 

Which countries does Singapore have direct flights to?

But things aren’t so simple. Even when borders reopen, travel options are likely to be limited to countries with direct flights to Singapore. This is because transiting in a third country may affect your eligibility for a quarantine waiver, should the third country not be on the destination country’s green list.

For example, I could fly from Singapore to Brussels via Istanbul on Turkish Airlines. While travelers from Singapore are exempt from quarantine in Belgium, travelers from Turkey are not. Since I’m changing planes in Istanbul, I effectively become a traveler from Turkey. 

Now, there are obviously situations where transits can work, in cases where the third country is also on the green list. If I were to fly from Singapore to Brussels via Zurich on SWISS, there wouldn’t be an issue since travelers from Switzerland are exempt from quarantine in Belgium anyway (ditto flying via Frankfurt on Lufthansa).

But for simplicity’s sake, we’ll ignore these permutations first and just focus on countries with direct flights to Singapore. 

That parses down the list significantly, with just 16 countries available. 

Which countries would be deemed low risk?

Going there is one thing; coming back is another. If the idea is to avoid quarantine on both sides of your trip, then we need to consider which of the above countries might fall into Singapore’s definition of “low-risk”. 

It seems like Singapore will consider two metrics:

• % of population fully vaccinated
• Number of new COVID-19 cases

I’m curious how that dynamic will work, because we could well see a rising number of new COVID-19 cases in a country that reopens after vaccinating a critical mass of its population. If the idea is to treat COVID as endemic, then new cases per se shouldn’t be a concern, but that’s a question for the policymakers to decide. 

In a recent interview with The Straits Times, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung suggested the following heuristic:

“Once a place’s (Covid-19) infection rate is going down, vaccinations are going up and you go below, say, two or three infections per 100,000, we should start monitoring those countries seriously.”

So here’s the 7-day average of new cases per 100,000, and the percentage of population fully vaccinated in the 16 countries on our shortlist. 

I hope you like beer halls, because Germany is the only country on the list that currently falls into the <3 cases per 100,000 threshold. 

Given the greater transmissibility of the Delta variant, it seems doubtful whether the 3 cases per 100,000 threshold will be a realistic goal, and I suspect this won’t be the factor determining whether Singapore lifts SHN requirements for a given country. Vaccination rates will surely have a part to play as well, which might work in the favor of other countries in the EU. 

Other candidates

Sharp-eyed readers may have noticed the absence of some much-discussed destinations like Australia and Hong Kong. 

The reason they didn’t make the funnel is because they’re currently not open to Singapore travelers, but let’s take a quick look at the likelihood of each for completeness’ sake. 

Australia

In March this year, news broke that Singapore and Australia were planning a travel bubble for work, leisure and studies by July. Well, July’s almost over, and it’s clear this idea is nowhere closer to fruition. 

The latest word out of Canberra is that Australia does not plan to move forward on a travel bubble with Singapore until at least “the end of the year”. I think even that’s a long shot, given Australia’s obsession with COVID-zero and lacklustre vaccination roll out (or “stroll out”, as some critics have put it). 

Australia recently cut its already heavily restricted quota for returning citizens, allowing just 3,000 people to return each week. This measure is expected to last till next year, and it’d be politically unthinkable to throw open the floodgates to travelers from Singapore when so many nationals are still stranded abroad. 

New Zealand

If Australia is an unlikely prospect, New Zealand is even less so. The government has not committed to a timeline for reopening its borders, and there doesn’t seem to be much appetite among the population to do so (a poll found 82% supported a closed border policy for all but returning citizens). Even the travel bubble with Australia has been suspended, in light of the latest flare ups in Sydney. 

While Air New Zealand’s filing of weekly Singapore – Christchurch flights from 31 October has raised some eyebrows, the airline has denied any knowledge of a potential bubble with Singapore, claiming the flights are part of a “Maintaining International Air Connectivity” scheme for cargo and repatriation. 

Japan

Japan has recently accelerated its vaccination program, and at one point was administering more than one million doses per day. That rate has since tapered off, but the target still is to vaccinate everyone who wants a shot by November. 

While there’s little doubt in my mind that Singapore would consider Japan as a low-risk country (3.6 new cases per 100,000 people), the real question is whether Japan will be willing to reopen its borders. 

Tokyo is still under a state of emergency until 22 August 2021, and entry bans are still in place for travel of all sorts including business. Long-term residents still face challenges re-entering, so 2021 may be a bridge too far for leisure travel. 

South Korea

Singapore and South Korea have been holding “exploratory talks” on an air travel bubble since March, and although it all sounded promising, nothing has yet materialized.

The latest news is that South Korea is waiving the two-week quarantine for fully vaccinated individuals who are Korean nationals, or foreigners entering Korea for business, public interest or family reasons. This isn’t a seamless process; an application form needs to be submitted to a diplomatic mission and documentation provided prior to departure, but it’s hopefully the first step in a broader reopening. 

Just like Japan, South Korea would be a strong candidate for low-risk designation (2.7 new cases per 100,000 people), should they wish to reopen. 

Hong Kong

At this point I think we’ve said all we need to say about the ill-fated Hong Kong ATB. At one point Singapore was just hours away from announcing the third attempt, now it seems like travel to other places may well reopen before Hong Kong. 

The Ministry of Transport has issued the following statement, saying that ATB discussions are on ice until late August:

Taiwan

Singapore and Taiwan have been discussing an air travel bubble since April, with the main barrier likely to be Taiwan’s low vaccination rate. 

Taiwan has had difficulty obtaining vaccines, but has recently received donations from Japan and the USA. A further 15 million doses of BioNTech vaccines have been secured through private channels, and 28% of the population has received at least one dose. 

Should the vaccination figures continue to improve, then Taiwan could be a very strong candidate for Q4 travel. 

Conclusion

While early-September is hardly a guarantee, it’s a relief to know we’re working towards a definite timeline for SHN-free travel. I imagine the initial list of countries will be a small one indeed, but it’s all about baby steps at this point. 

I haven’t made any air ticket bookings yet, but as I stated in a previous post, I see nothing wrong with doing so as long as they’re flexible and for direct flights. 

What’s your take on likely travel destinations?