Milestone: Hong Kong’s unlinked COVID-19 cases drop below ATB threshold

On 21 November 2020, Singapore and Hong Kong announced a last-minute suspension of the much-anticipated Air Travel Bubble (ATB), which was due to kick-off the following morning.

The suspension was owing to a spike in COVID-19 cases on the Hong Kong side. Even though the agreed-upon limit of five unlinked community cases over a seven-day average had not yet been breached, the trajectory suggested it was only a matter of time. Indeed, the threshold was breached just days later, as Hong Kong well and truly entered a fourth wave.

But now there’s some good news. Hong Kong’s seven-day moving average of unlinked COVID-19 community cases has dropped below five for the first time since the ATB was suspended. As per @tripperhead on Twitter:

7 day moving average unknown source cases (ATB) drops below the threshold of 5 for the first time. pic.twitter.com/D3AN75xnbb

— Aaron says 恭喜發財 (and stay home) 🇭🇰 (@tripperhead) February 15, 2021

Indeed, the unknown source cases for 15 February was 3, which reduced the seven-day moving average to 4.7. 

Will the ATB be resuming shortly?

While the numbers from Hong Kong are moving in the right direction, I’d temper my expectations about a quick resumption of the ATB. Obviously, the authorities will want to see whether the dip is a flash in the pan or a sustained trend, and that requires a period of observation. 

In any case, there’s no provision for the immediate resumption of the ATB once the seven-day moving average drops below five: 

The ATB may be suspended for two weeks if the seven-day moving average of the daily number of unlinked COVID-19 cases is more than five in either Singapore or Hong Kong. If the seven-day moving average of the daily number of unlinked COVID-19 cases on the last day of the suspension period is five or less, the ATB arrangement will resume.

This suggests we’ll have at least a two week wait to see where the numbers go . 

Another important thing to remember is that the ATB was conceptualized before the UK and South African COVID-19 variants became more widespread and better understood. The UK variant has already been found in Hong Kong (and Singapore too, to be fair), and its increased contagiousness and potentially greater lethality is giving health experts cause for concern. 

As expected, Singapore Airlines’ booking page still shows only non-ATB flights to Hong Kong, and there’s no updates on Cathay Pacific’s either. 

Likewise, the Hong Kong tourism board’s dedicated ATB page also does not show any updates yet. 

I wouldn’t anticipate this changing in the near future, although I’m keeping my fingers crossed for some developments in the early part of Q2 if all goes well.

What will ATB schedules look like?

If the past is anything to go by, we should see Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific start by operating a total of seven weekly ATB flights in each direction between Singapore and Hong Kong, rising to 14 per week after a two week “trial period”. 

An initial quota of 200 passengers on a single flight per day was quoted the last time round, which would represent an 80% load on a Singapore Airlines long-haul configured A350-900. 

What tests do I need to undergo before traveling on the ATB?

Travel from Singapore to Hong Kong

Before departure, travelers from Singapore must fulfill the following requirements:

1. Apply for a visa (not required for Singapore passport holders)
2. Purchase ticket for a designated ATB flight
3. Take a pre-departure COVID-19 PCR test
4. Submit a Health Declaration
5. Book a post-arrival COVID-19 test

COVID-19 PCR tests must be taken within 72 hours before the scheduled departure time of the flight from Singapore to Hong Kong, at one of the clinics or testing centres designated by the Singapore government. Tests start from S$150, and the good news is that prices have fallen by ~25% from the time of the initial ATB. 

Where’s the cheapest pre-departure COVID-19 PCR swab test in Singapore?

During check-in, travelers must present the following:

• Valid travel document
• Valid visa (if needed)
• QR code of Health Declaration form
• Negative COVID-19 PCR test (electronic or printed copy)
• QR code of booking and payment for post-arrival COVID-19 test at Hong Kong airport
• For non-Singapore citizens: identity card, long-term pass, or approval letter of entry

On arrival in Hong Kong

Travelers will undergo a temperature screening and a second COVID-19 PCR test, which will cost HKD499 (~S$87). You must register and pay for this test in advance online via this link (an account must be created first)

Book Hong Kong Airport COVID-19 Test

If the result is negative, travelers may leave the airport and carry out their activities as per normal.

Travel from Hong Kong to Singapore

There is no need for Singapore citizens, permanent residents and long-term pass holders to apply for an Air Travel Pass to enter Singapore, nor serve an SHN upon arrival in Singapore. Do note that long-term pass holders will still have to seek entry approval from the relevant Singapore Government agencies before travelling to Singapore.

All travelers must take a third COVID-19 PCR test within 72 hours of the scheduled time of departure of the flight from Hong Kong to Singapore. This will cost between HKD700-2,000 (~S$122-347) at a private facility, or just HKD240 (~S$41) if done at a community testing facility.

The exception is if your return flight is within 72 hours of your most recent test (i.e the one administered on arrival)- in which case a pre-departure test will not be required before leaving Hong Kong. 

On arrival in Singapore

On arrival in Singapore, a fourth COVID-19 PCR test will be required, at a cost of S$160 (it used to be S$196, but this was reduced on 4 January 2021). 

So all in all, a Singapore resident can expect to do three to four COVID-19 PCR tests:

Full details of the process can be found on the ICA website. 

Conclusion

While it’s good to see that Hong Kong is gradually taming their fourth wave, there’s still ways to go before quarantine-free travel can open up. I think it’d be overly optimistic to expect a resumption of the ATB during this month or the next, but hopefully this lays the foundations for a Q2 start.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed.