It is a truth universally acknowledged, that the boy who cries devaluation will eventually be proven right.
That said, Iโve been hearing rumours for some time now that Singapore Airlines plans to adjust its award redemption charts soon, and in my mind, its latest email to members all but confirms it.
To be clear, nothing has been officially announced yet. But I trust my sources on this, and as much as Iโd love to be proven wrong, I would be amazed if we made it to the end of 2025 unscathed.
Singapore Airlines hints at upcoming changes to KrisFlyer
Yesterday, Singapore Airlines announced that from July 2025, the value of a KrisFlyer mile will be standardised at 1 cent each for spending on Singapore Airlines and Scoot commercial flights, Kris+ transactions, KrisShop purchases and Pelago bookings.
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| Until 30 Jun 2025 | From 1 Jul 2025 | |
| Miles & Cash (SIA and Scoot) |
105 miles = S$1 0.95ยข/mile |
100 miles = S$1 1ยข/mile |
| Kris+ | 150 miles = S$1 0.67ยข/mile |
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| KrisShop | 125 miles = S$1 0.80ยข/mile |
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| Pelago* | 150 miles = S$1 0.67ยข/mile |
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| *Only full payment with miles allowed |
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On the one hand, this is a positive change because in every single case, the value of a mile will be higher than before. For Kris+ in particular, I imagine that those who transferred miles with the recent 35% transfer bonus will be chuffed to end up with a beefy 1.35 cents per mile, instead of the 0.90 cents they originally envisioned!
On the other, Singapore Airlines also took the opportunity to slip in this rather ominous sounding sentence.
In the coming months, we will be introducing new benefits for KrisFlyer members as well as changes to the KrisFlyer programme.
-Singapore Airlines
Now, you can tell me Iโm reading way too much into that, but โchanges to the KrisFlyer programmeโ is a euphemism the airline has historically trotted out whenever devaluations take place.
Besides, this is in line with what Iโve been hearing from sources inside Singapore Airlines, who tell me:
- A KrisFlyer devaluation is likely to take place this summer
- The return of fuel surcharges on SIA award tickets has been discussed, but no final decision has been made
I donโt have any information as to how severe the devaluation will be, but I have written a detailed article that tracks how KrisFlyer award prices have evolved since the programme started in 1999.
Given the generally inflationary nature of mileage programmes, it might surprise you to know that some awards are even cheaper today than 25 years ago!
Why do I think a devaluation is likely?
Itโs been three years since the last devaluation
From its inception in 1999 till today, KrisFlyer has updated its award charts a total of six times.
| โ๏ธ A History of KrisFlyer Devaluations | |
| Devaluation (One-way Business Saver award from SIN) |
Changes |
| October 2003 (NRT 27.6K | SYD 36.1K | LHR 51K) Fuel Surcharges |
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| February 2007 (NRT 29.8K | SYD 38.2K | LHR 51K) Fuel Surcharges |
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| March 2012 (NRT 34K | SYD 46.8K | LHR 68K) Fuel Surcharges |
|
| March 2017 (NRT 43K | SYD 58K | LHR 85K) No Fuel Surcharges |
|
| January 2019 (NRT 47K, | SYD 62K | LHR 92K) No Fuel Surcharges |
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| July 2022 (NRT 52K, | SYD 68.5K | LHR 103.5K) No Fuel Surcharges |
|
| โ๏ธ May 2016โs โDevaluationโ |
| Technically speaking, there was another devaluation in May 2016, though relatively minor. Europe 1 and Europe 2 were combined into a single award zone, which used the higher Europe 2 pricing. This led to a price increase for the four cities in Europe 1, namely Amsterdam, Athens, Copenhagen and Rome. |
Devaluations used to take place at a cadence of 4-5 years, but more recently itโs been happening every 2-3 years. And perhaps thatโs not surprising. With KrisFlyer recently reaching 10 million members globally, and more miles than ever in circulation, something has to give.
Since the last devaluation took place in July 2022, thereโs good reason to believe that 2025 will see another award chart adjustment.
Capacity constraints increase the opportunity cost of award seats
Itโs no secret that Singapore Airlines has nowhere near the number of planes it would like to have right now, as airline executives have acknowledged.
โTo be very candid with you, our planning horizon is being controlled by Boeing and Airbus. Unfortunately, there have been a fair number of delays by the aircraft manufacturers, in part because of the pandemic, in part because some of them have production issues and constraints (strikes, etc.).
Our deliveries, like with many other airlines, have been delayed. At this point in time, we do not have very strong visibility on how the deliveries will come about, consequently impacting our expansion plans.โ
-Singapore Airlines RVP for Europe
I suppose he was being diplomatic by not singling out a specific company (โBoeing and Airbusโ), but everyone knows that the entire SIA backlog is with Boeing.
SIA currently has 48 Boeing aircraft on order: 5 B787-10s, 12 B737-8 MAXs, and, of course, 31 of the infamously-delayed B777-9s. However:
- The airline only expects to receive seven aircraft by the end of the current financial year (31 March 2026), of which five will be narrow-body B737-8 MAXsโ the most recent, 9V-MBQ, came after a 30-month gap in deliveries
- Moreover, this isnโt so much growth as it is renewal, since the MAXs are replacing the aging B737-800s inherited from SilkAir.
- The first of the 31 Boeing 777-9s wonโt arrive until late 2026 at the earliest, and possibly (likely?) even in 2027
All that to say, when load factors are high and aircraft are in short supply, the opportunity cost of releasing seats for awards instead of selling them for cash is high. That then puts pressure on the award charts to be adjusted accordingly.
It doesnโt help that SIA only has 160 Suites and First Class suites in its fleet today, compared to more than double that pre-COVID. This is largely due to A380-800 retirements and refits, where the Suites cabin was cut from 12 seats to six.
While it will improve in time with the arrival of the B777-9s (where the First Class cabin is rumoured to be 50% larger than the B777-300ERs) and the addition of a 4-seat First Class cabin on the A350-900 ULRs, we now have a lot of miles chasing very few seats, and I donโt have to tell you what that results in.
New cabin products are coming
Singapore Airlines will unveil its next generation First and Business Class seats in early 2026, with the first refit aircraft expected to enter service in Q2 2026. We donโt know much about how the new seats will look, but what we do know is that historically, there has been a close correlation between new seats and award chart devaluations.
For example, in October 2006, SIA debuted new First and Business Class seats on the B777-300ER. The following month, it announced that award charts would be devalued from February 2007, and Saver redemptions would not be allowed for aircraft with the new cabin products.
Another KrisFlyer devaluation took place about a year before the launch of the current generation First and Business Class seats in 2013, and further KrisFlyer devaluation took place in March 2017, ahead of the unveiling of the new A380 cabin products later that year.
Rebasing KrisFlyer mile value to 1 cent each
Singapore Airlinesโ decision to standardise the value of a KrisFlyer mile to 1 cent each across all platforms doesnโt feel like something you do in isolation. It has broader implications for how the company measures the value of its outstanding liabilities, and it stands to reason that award chart prices will also need to be adjusted to reflect this new valuation.
Other mileage programmes have adopted a standardised value per mile as a precursor to fully dynamic award pricing, where the number of miles required is tied to the cash price of a ticket. Even though I highly doubt that KrisFlyer will go that far with its next devaluation, we might see a โdynamic-liteโ model introduced with peak and off-peak award pricing.
What should you do when a devaluation happens?
It really boils down to how bad the devaluation is.
If the price increases are mild, you might want to book a couple of speculative trips at the current prices, but otherwise keep the rest of your powder dry. If the award chart is gutted, then youโll probably want to drain your entire balance.
For perspective, hereโs how Saver award prices changed during the past six devaluations (with the caveat that past performance etc. etc.).
| โ๏ธ KrisFlyer Devaluations Min Increase | Max Increase |
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| Economy | Business | First | |
| Oct 2003 | -32% | 2% | -31% | 0% | -19% | 13% |
| Feb 2007 | -8% | 13% | -10% | 13% | -7% | 11% |
| Mar 2012 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 45% | 0% | 30% |
| Mar 2017 | 18% | 32% | 18% | 42% | 18% | 59% |
| Jan 2019 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 10% |
| Jul 2022 | 8% | 16% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Based on Saver prices for SIA redemptions |
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Either way, you will have approximately one month to book awards at the existing prices, based on past experience. Remember, you donโt need to travel before the devaluation, but you must book before it comes into effect.
Award tickets can be booked up to 355 days in advance, and new inventory is loaded daily at (all times SGT):
- 8 a.m (All destinations except USA)
- 1 p.m (EWR/JFK)
- 4 p.m (LAX/SEA/SFO)
Do note that any waitlists which clear after the effective date of the devaluation will be charged at the new prices, even if you joined the waitlist prior to this date. Likewise, any changes made to award tickets after the devaluation that involve reissuance (e.g. changing route, cabin or award type) will require a top up of the miles difference.
Date changes and flight number changes on the same route (e.g. you want to take an earlier flight to Bangkok) do not require reissuance.
Conclusion
Singapore Airlines has hinted that the coming months will see โnew benefitsโ for members as well as โchangesโ to the KrisFlyer programme. Weโll need to wait for the full details, though I canโt see that as pointing to anything other than an award chart devaluation.
This, of course, is simply part and parcel of the miles game. Nothing stays the same forever, and if the idea of a devaluation keeps you up at night, youโre probably keeping too large a miles balance on hand.
What does your Spider Sense say about a KrisFlyer devaluation?
so how is anyone able to book for a long haul business class flight for a family of 4 to 5 if they keep devaluing? by the time the person accumulates enough points, (which can be 2 to 3 years), the airline gives a devaluation.
Itโs a frequent flyer program so maybe you are just not traveling frequently enough or not spending enough?
you know a long haul flight from SG to New York on business class need how many miles?
even if you max out every single 4MPD card for 2 years also not enough to buy for a family of 4 or 5.
Frankly even if you accrue enough miles to do so it will be a miracle to find that many award tickets for the same flight especially for long haul
Can la.
I managed to book return biz class for family of 5 for twice in 2 years already. SIN-LAX, JFK-SIN and SIN-SFO-SIN. Average 1.2M miles a trip.
I didnโt even had to utilise my income tax to do so.
Not everyone is a high roller like yourself. For those โmere mortalsโ here, these devaluations make it increasingly hard to accumulate and redeem miles. And even after we think we have accumulated enough, they devalue againโฆ
Learn the hard truth that you cannot play the long game. Look at Qatar. After, bonus transfer, boosting and sales of avios, you could hardly find any classic business class award to US or long distance award and would be lucky to find Flexi which is double that of classic. Sigh
this means you are not spending enough? business class is not for the hoi polloi anyway.. so sick of travelling with people taking videos of their whole journey, so disruptive!
I totally agree. All these photos and videos blocking the real experience. Please ah only allow First Class and Suites for PPS Solitaire Main Member ONLY. Popi Popi
Hope you step on a lego! Popi Popi
You too! Popi Popi
Errrmโฆ maybe a cashback card is a better and more logical choice for your use case.
Direct discountโฆ
Either you spend more and able to afford or simply back out of the miles game altogether because you donโt fit this lifestyle
for those earning and spending little, it makes little sense to play miles>cashback
If u only want to try the business class experience, choose a shorter trip. Business class isnโt worth it for most part, from my experience. At first, it felt great. But the excitement dies off and it donโt feel anything special. 3-4 times the price but 1.5x the experience.
Unless you really need the space to do actual work (on laptop) while onboard, it doesnโt matter if you go business or economy. Just take a nap in economy (or premium) and wake up afresh to experience the actual travelling.
Have been expecting that since late last year.
Been trying to use up my miles but some of the miles are promotional miles from banks which will only come in a couple of monthsโ time. Hope the change will not be announced so soon.
Im keeping a small miles balance but i cannot get any dates i want to anywhere i want..
And its not sch holidays.
I search normal tix i see >20 available seatsโฆ
Might as well book SQ award flights via Aeroplan at the moment.
With all the nurfs that make accumulating miles continually harder, a devaluation on top will be the end of the miles game for most. Hardly worth the effort if you can only manage to scrape in one business class between Singapore and Bangkok every 3 to 5 years.
Hopefully it will be just an award devaluation and not a goalpost move for elite (re)qualification
If everyone is elite, then no one is elite.
As much as it hurts, this is a necessary evil for the longevity of the program.
That said, I would also expect SQ blocking redemptions for the new first and biz class flights to regular Krisflyer members too.
On the note of โvalueโ at these rates, itโs almost pointless to redeem miles. Especially on Suites/First Class.
long time coming given how easy it is to earn KF miles nowadays.
As a solitaire living in the UK it is not that easy to accumulate miles. Only way is flying or transfers from Amex at a poor rate.
you should see how easy it is to earn in Singapore now broโฆ
9mpd from Kris+ app at a restaurant on top of 4mpd on your credit card
No more widely available 9mpd from Kris+ from next month onwards. Only 3 merchants will remain at 9mpd
This is very true. What most forget is that outside of Singapore, it is very hard to accumulate miles. Many (or most?) in Singapore accumulate miles from credit card spending/promoโs. Outside of Singapore, you are pretty much limited to actually flying!
From what i seen, it is actually easier to accumulate miles in USA. Thatโs where most people with tons of mile comes from.
Correct me if im wrong but thatโs the impression i get
David, use the American Express Gold Card. Coupled it up with the Amex Travel Desk. Good luck. The UK Program favors your British Airways & Virgin Atlantic
They need to hike up the award prices firstโฆ so they can afford to give 60% for the SG60 promo ๐
For you to hit some lego first.
I am sure they are coming sooner than we think.
My reasoning: SQ gives a (cosmetic) advantage in mile conversions (around -5%) and then within a few weeks later it adds a major devaluation, whilst mentioning โbetterโ upgrade availability, since now some customers are priced out of them.
I also expect an increase in spending needed for PPS/TPPS. I find Solitaire to be frankly too low at 50000 SGD/year, I would imagine 75000 to be realistic, however 100000 might be perhaps a tad too high a jump for now given SQ would probably not offer anything in return.
SQ do make a decent revenue through Krisflyer. In FY2024/25, the KrisFlyer loyalty program generated over $1.21 billion in revenue, according to Singapore Airlines. Certainly I will compare it to other rewards such as cashback. Virtually all my overseas expenditures are now using cashback card without the forex fees in anticipation of further devaluation. My mileage account has been withered down to half what it used to be. Credit Card companies that used to be very generous with the miles awards are also cutting back. It is SQ decision to make and it is also our own decision to make.
Actually thereโs no need to have a peak and off peak differentiation. Thereโs already saver and advantage awards. But if they do use the standard vpm calculations to price flights according to the cash value of revenue tickets, it would be catastrophic for members. I think I would switch to CX
I wish bloggers would quit calling it a โdevaluationโ. It isnโt. It is inflation and routine economics (supply/demand). Rising prices for tickets mean it should take more miles (the value per miles can be the same) and with many more miles in circulation due to credit cards and other bonuses of course the price per ticket goes up (supply/demand again).
Look I like a bargain as much as anyone but no airline or hotel owes you a cheap award. They are in business to make a profit and are doing g what is prudent for their stakeholders.
Spot on
I expect IST mileage requirement to be aligned with the rest of Europe.